Leeds United vs Queens Park Rangers: Five key battles & score prediction
This weekend sees an intriguing Championship matchup between two sides in contrasting form as Leeds United welcome Queens Park Rangers to Elland Road.
Leeds find themselves two points off the automatic promotion spots following dropped points at Millwall and will be looking to head into the international break with a home victory.
The Rs are coming off the back of a heavy 4-1 defeat against Middlesbrough in front of their own fans and sit a worrying 23rd in the Championship table.
In this article, Sports News Blitz writer Samuel Leasley considers five key battles to anticipate in Saturday’s fixture and offers a score prediction.
Daniel Farke vs Marti Cifuentes
Daniel Farke will no doubt be disappointed with his side's inability to match Sheffield United’s smash-and-grab win against Millwall as he now sees the Whites trailing their Yorkshire rivals by two points.
Following a routine victory over Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth, Leeds looked uncharacteristically toothless in attack at The Den and registered their lowest expected goals (xG) of the season so far in the capital. Unable to break down a stubborn Millwall side, they suffered their first away defeat of the campaign.
Looking ahead to the weekend, Farke has no fresh injury concerns within his first-team squad and was further boosted by the return of Jayden Bogle from suspension in midweek. The game against QPR is ultimately the kind that Leeds needs to be dominating and winning comfortably if they are to succeed in their quest for automatic promotion.
On the whole, Marti Cifuentes will be the worse off of the two managers coming into this fixture as the Spaniard could be without eight first-teamers for the trip to Elland Road.
Both top scorer Michael Frey and star playmaker Ilias Chair are doubts for the fixture. They join a long list of absentees including Karamoko Dembele, Jake Clarke-Salter, and Jack Colback to complicate things further for a QPR side already on a bad run of form.
Cifuentes has come under increasing fire of late with the midweek defeat their tenth league game without a victory — they now sit five points adrift of safety after 14 games.
On the bright side for QPR, their most recent encounter with the West Yorkshire side saw them inflict the heaviest defeat of the Whites’ 2023-24 season in a 4-0 mauling at Loftus Road.
With the Rs likely to sit back in an attempt to disrupt the Leeds attack, Farke’s front quartet will need to be ruthless on Saturday in order to secure the three points.
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Joel Piroe vs Paul Nardi
Joel Piroe returned to the scoresheet in Leeds’ previous home fixture with Plymouth following a quiet run of form for the Dutchman. The former Swansea man had firmly secured his place in the starting line-up after beginning the season with four goals from four shots on target.
Piroe was, however, unable to be as effective at the Den due to very little attacking momentum coming down the wings and some astute man-marking by Neil Harris. Considering QPR’s defensive frailties, not to mention a hefty injury list, Piroe will no doubt fancy his chances of boosting his goal tally.
Standing in his way will be QPR shot stopper Paul Nardi, who is probably in for a busy afternoon at Elland Road. The Frenchman has started every Championship fixture for the Rs, conceding 23 goals and making 41 saves in the process.
Although he has only two clean sheets to his name, Nardi has admittedly had very little support from a porous defensive line. The former Monaco man will still need to be at his best to quell a Leeds attack that has scored 15 goals at home this season, including three apiece against QPR’s direct relegation rivals Portsmouth and Plymouth.
Should Leeds return to their best in front of goal and provide good service to Piroe, it appears likely the Whites will take all three points at Elland Road.
Wilfried Gnonto vs Jimmy Dunne
It has been a frustrating season so far for star wide man Wilfried Gnonto with the Italian only managing two goals, one of which was on the opening day.
That is not to say that Gnonto is not contributing immensely to the Leeds attack. He has provided the joint-most assists in the Championship this season with five and has also created the second-most big chances in the division with seven.
It is clear, however, that Gnonto is desperate to get his name on the scoresheet. The Italian was particularly frustrated after multiple missed chances during the Whites’ comfortable 3-0 victory over Plymouth.
At the same time, Gnonto has been a regular target for opposition defenders with the winger being fouled 33 times this season, which puts him in the top five for most fouled in the league.
With Dan James returning from injury and Largie Ramazani due back after the international break, there is no shortage of competition for Gnonto and the Italian will be looking over his shoulder if he continues to fail to find the net.
Opposite him on Saturday will be Jimmy Dunne, one of the most consistent performers in a very inconsistent QPR side. Operating from either centre-back or right-back, Dunne will need to be at his defensive best to keep Gnonto quiet.
Dunne has made the most successful tackles in the Rs side with 14 and the second-most interceptions with 13. The Irishman has also not been afraid to push forward as he has attempted the most shots (20) and the most shots on target (10) of the entire squad.
He will likely be deployed in a deeper line of defence to manage the threat of the Leeds front four, but the Whites will nevertheless need to be wary of the counter-attack and the need to close Dunne down should he see sight of goal.
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Brenden Aaronson vs Sam Field
Another Leeds man who netted in their most recent home fixture was Brenden Aaronson who capitalised on a loose ball to notch his fourth of the season for the Whites. In midweek, however, Aaronson failed to be as effective as Millwall’s low block stifled the American’s supply and crowded him out whenever he did get involved.
While he is certainly a changed man since returning to Leeds, the number 10 still struggles to create against sides who stifle the lines and restrict the space around him. The typical result is Aaronson resorting to taking shots from in and around the 18-yard line.
To be fair, he has provided the second-most shots on target for the Whites with 10 and has often been vital in Leeds winning the ball back high up the pitch.
The man who will be tasked with keeping Aaronson quiet is makeshift central defender Sam Field who assumed the role in midweek due to the ongoing injury crisis that has left QPR without the services of Jake Clarke-Salter.
After Dunne, Field possesses arguably the best defensive qualities in the squad and garnered strong praise in the strongly fought draw with league leaders Sunderland. Indeed, the former West Brom man has the most interceptions at the club with 14 and has further drawn the second-most fouls with 19.
In order to successfully take something from this game, Field must stifle the creativity of Aaronson either by closing down his space or keeping the passing lanes closed. The winner of this duel will ultimately be influential in providing their side with the tools to take the points.
Junior Firpo vs Koki Saito
Another man who had a quiet game by his usual standards at the Den was Junior Firpo. Millwall denied him the space to overlap with Gnonto on the left wing and kept him quiet by suppressing the Whites’ forward progression.
Firpo also picked up his sixth yellow card of the season and remains atop the Leeds disciplinary charts after only recently returning from suspension against Plymouth.
The Dominican Republic international will be looking to add to his three assists so far this season by teaming up with Gnonto against Jimmy Dunne. Firpo’s defensive record is not too shabby either, with the former Barcelona man racking up 15 successful tackles and interceptions.
Should QPR look to drop their defensive line deeper, it will not be surprising to see Firpo making himself at home in the final third.
Similarly, Koki Saito will be one of the main attacking outlets for QPR in the absence of Ilias Chair, and the tricky winger will have to choose his moments carefully when Leeds have committed bodies forward.
Saito has two assists from seven starts this term and will want to replicate the form he exhibited briefly at Bramall Lane, where he provided the assist for Lyndon Dykes’ late equaliser. The Japanese youth international is sure to provide Firpo with a stern test considering the latter has committed the most fouls at his club with 22.
If QPR opt to play long balls over the Leeds high line, Saito possesses the pace and technical ability to carry the ball forward and carve out some chances at goal. Conversely, with such an abundance of attacking threat on offer on the Leeds left wing, Saito will have to be diligent in assisting Dunne with tracking the runs of Firpo and company.
In much the same manner as Plymouth, QPR are likely to sit deep and attempt to frustrate the hosts as wave after wave of attack is thrown at them. Should Leeds be clinical and take their chances, there is no reason why the Plymouth result cannot be replicated.
Score prediction: Leeds United 3-0 Queens Park Rangers
